NFL

These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	NO	ARI	ARI -2.0	5.547338
Sun 01:00PM	ATL	CIN	CIN -6.0	4.89627
Sun 01:00PM	CLE	BAL	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	DET	DAL	DAL -7.0	5.466992
Sun 01:00PM	GB	WAS	GB -5.0	109.037933
Sun 01:00PM	IND	TEN	IND +2.5	1008.359685
Sun 01:00PM	NYG	JAX	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TB	CAR	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	HOU	LV	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	NYJ	DEN	DEN -1.5	3.917887
Sun 04:25PM	KC	SF	SF +3.0	6.744597
Sun 04:25PM	SEA	LAC	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 08:20PM	PIT	MIA	No Bet	No Bet
Mon 08:15PM	CHI	NE	No Bet	No Bet

Continue reading

I won 56% bets (5 of 9 games) this week

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
IND	34	JAX	27	IND -2.0	Covered
NO	26	CIN	30	NO +2.0	Did Not Cover
PHI	26	DAL	17	DAL +6.5	Did Not Cover
CLE	15	NE	38	NE +2.5	Covered
LA	24	CAR	10	LA -10.5	Covered
MIA	16	MIN	24	MIA +3.5	Did Not Cover
CHI	7	WAS	12	CHI -1.0	Did Not Cover
SEA	19	ARI	9	SEA +2.5	Covered
NYG	24	BAL	20	NYG +5.5	Covered

 

 

Over the full season, I have won 56% bets (10 of 18 games) this season

Week	Wins	Losses	Bets Placed	Bets Won
5	5	4	9	56%
6	5	4	9	56%

Continue reading

These are the results for this week’s bets:

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
IND	34	JAX	27	IND -2.0	Covered
NO	26	CIN	30	NO +2.0	Did Not Cover
PHI	26	DAL	17	DAL +6.5	Did Not Cover
CLE	15	NE	38	NE +2.5	Covered
LA	24	CAR	10	LA -10.5	Covered
MIA	16	MIN	24	MIA +3.5	Did Not Cover
CHI	7	WAS	12	CHI -1.0	Did Not Cover
SEA	19	ARI	9	SEA +2.5	Covered
NYG	24	BAL	20	NYG +5.5	Covered

Continue reading

These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	WAS	CHI	CHI -1.0	4.392196
Sun 01:00PM	BAL	NYG	NYG +5.5	5.055159
Sun 01:00PM	CIN	NO	NO +2.0	6.129075
Sun 01:00PM	JAX	IND	IND -2.0	1008.502336
Sun 01:00PM	MIN	MIA	MIA +3.5	6.421526
Sun 01:00PM	NE	CLE	NE +2.5	1007.672369
Sun 01:00PM	NYJ	GB	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	SF	ATL	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TB	PIT	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	ARI	SEA	SEA +2.5	8.782319
Sun 04:05PM	CAR	LA	LA -10.5	4.452431
Sun 04:25PM	BUF	KC	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 08:20PM	DAL	PHI	DAL +6.5	1008.814472
Mon 08:15PM	DEN	LAC	No Bet	No Bet

Continue reading

These are the results for this week’s bets:

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
DEN	9	IND	12	IND +3.5	Covered
JAX	6	HOU	13	HOU +7.0	Covered
NE	29	DET	0	NE -3.0	Covered
NYJ	40	MIA	17	NYJ +3.0	Covered
LA	10	DAL	22	DAL +4.5	Covered
KC	30	LV	29	KC -7.0	Did Not Cover
ARI	17	PHI	20	ARI +5.5	Covered
GB	22	NYG	27	GB -8.5	Did Not Cover
WAS	17	TEN	21	WAS +2.5	Did Not Cover
TB	21	ATL	15	TB -9.0	Did Not Cover

Continue reading

These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	IND	DEN	IND +3.5	106.809493
Sun 09:30AM	NYG	GB	GB -8.5	8.437054
Sun 01:00PM	ATL	TB	TB -9.0	8.298578
Sun 01:00PM	CHI	MIN	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	DET	NE	NE -3.0	8.704827
Sun 01:00PM	HOU	JAX	HOU +7.0	1008.207282
Sun 01:00PM	LAC	CLE	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	MIA	NYJ	NYJ +3.0	4.490699
Sun 01:00PM	PIT	BUF	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	SEA	NO	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TEN	WAS	WAS +2.5	8.486825
Sun 04:05PM	SF	CAR	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:25PM	DAL	LA	DAL +4.5	107.442864
Sun 04:25PM	PHI	ARI	ARI +5.5	6.051749
Sun 08:20PM	CIN	BAL	No Bet	No Bet
Mon 08:15PM	LV	KC	KC -7.0	6.360378

Continue reading

Get ready for a new and improved model to pick NFL games in the upcoming season! These picks are the result of 4 different machine-learned models that have been optimized to win bets. In testing, these models won ~65% of the bets they placed, picking ~6 games per week. If this translates to real world results, then we are going to make some money.

Picks will be created starting in week 5 because we need 4 weeks of games to feed into the algorithms. Once we get there, bets will be posted on Wednesday afternoons. If I can make it work, this site will update during games to show how the picks are doing. After MNF, a new post will be created to show the win rate for the week and the whole season so far.

And now the long wait until week 5 :-/

Continue reading

What a season! My predictions were pretty terrible until the middle of the year, when I rewrote the prediction logic from the ground up before making the picks in Week 11.

Since Week 11, I picked 66% correctly against the spread, which would be hugely profitable. Weirdly, I wasn’t able to do much better picking the straight up winners.

This off season, I am going to pull in several new data sets into my prediction model, but keep most of the same logic in place. Several of my current data sets need manual intervention frequently to keep working, and my goal is to automate this completely.

While you wait for the next season, be sure to check out my NCAA Basketball picks and the MLB TweetBots!

Continue reading

This week, my results:

	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline	10	5	50.00%
Spread	8	4	50.00%

My bets from this week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team	Note	Result
2019	16	Spread	ARI	9.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	CAR	7	Lost
2019	16	Spread	CIN	1	Lost
2019	16	Spread	DAL	-3	Lost
2019	16	Spread	DET	7	Lost
2019	16	Spread	GB	4.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	NYG	2.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	OAK	7	Won
2019	16	Spread	TB	3	Push
2019	16	Moneyline	BAL		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	CIN		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	DAL		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	DEN		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	IND		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	KC		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	MIN		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	NYG		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	PIT		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	TB		Lost

For the whole year so far:

Bet Type	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline	59	40	67.80%
Spread	47	31	65.96%

Continue reading

Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team	Note
Moneyline	BAL
Moneyline	CIN
Moneyline	DAL
Moneyline	DEN
Moneyline	IND
Moneyline	KC
Moneyline	MIN
Moneyline	NYG
Moneyline	PIT
Moneyline	TB
Spread	ARI	9.5
Spread	CAR	7
Spread	CIN	1
Spread	DAL	-3
Spread	DET	7
Spread	GB	4.5
Spread	NYG	2.5
Spread	OAK	7
Spread	TB	3

Good luck!

Continue reading