Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | HOU | |
| Moneyline-Pick | KC | |
| Moneyline-Pick | LAC | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NE | |
| Spread-Lock | HOU | -5.0 |
| Spread-Pick | LAC | -6.5 |
Good luck!
NFL
NFL Season 2019
Happy new season!
Due to the limitations of the prediction model, no picks will be made until Week 5. We will have to suffer together by only watching the games without any bets to watch.
Once we hit Week 5, picks will be made, games will be played, sports betting will become legal in more states, and then maybe some money will be won.
It is good to be back!
2018 Year End Review
Another season in the books, and another season closer to legal sports gambling. I think the NFL’s popularity is going to skyrocket when everyone in the USA can start betting easily, even though the NFL is already the top TV program every year. Of course, I am biased, but it seems to me like it is going to happen this off season and that it will be great.
The NFL bets had an issue in the first half of the season. I had rewritten the process for this year, and I had a relative path in one of the scripts. I use a 4 week average of team stats, and these data points were not updated between Week 5-10. Starting with Week 11, the picks did much better.
The full season bets are in the post below, but the second half picks after the code fix were pretty darn great:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 27 | 18 | 66.67% |
| Spread-Lock | 23 | 15 | 65.22% |
| Spread-Pick | 25 | 17 | 68.00% |
See you all (which is just future-Matt) next year!
Results for Week #17
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 4 | 4 | 100.00% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Lock | ATL | 2.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Lock | DET | 6 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Lock | GB | 1.5 | Lost |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Lock | NYG | 9 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Pick | BUF | 13 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Pick | KC | -2.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Pick | LAC | -4.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Spread-Pick | PIT | 6 | Won |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Lock | DET | Won | |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Lock | TEN | Lost | |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Pick | ATL | Won | |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Pick | CHI | Won | |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Pick | DEN | Lost | |
| 2018 | 17 | Moneyline-Pick | GB | Lost |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 8 | 5 | 62.50% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 49 | 32 | 65.31% |
| Spread-Lock | 31 | 17 | 54.84% |
| Spread-Pick | 39 | 26 | 66.67% |
Results for Week #16
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Lock | ATL | 2.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Lock | DET | 6 | Lost |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Lock | GB | 1.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Lock | NYG | 9 | Won |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Pick | BUF | 13 | Won |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Pick | KC | -2.5 | Lost |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Pick | LAC | -4.5 | Lost |
| 2018 | 16 | Spread-Pick | PIT | 6 | Won |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Lock | DET | Lost | |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Lock | TEN | Won | |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Pick | ATL | Won | |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Pick | CHI | Won | |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Pick | DEN | Lost | |
| 2018 | 16 | Moneyline-Pick | GB | Won |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 45 | 30 | 66.67% |
| Spread-Lock | 27 | 14 | 51.85% |
| Spread-Pick | 35 | 22 | 62.86% |
Bets to Make for Week #16
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | DET | |
| Moneyline-Lock | TEN | |
| Moneyline-Pick | ATL | |
| Moneyline-Pick | CHI | |
| Moneyline-Pick | DEN | |
| Moneyline-Pick | GB | |
| Spread-Lock | ATL | 2.5 |
| Spread-Lock | DET | 6.0 |
| Spread-Lock | GB | 1.5 |
| Spread-Lock | NYG | 9.0 |
| Spread-Pick | BUF | 13.0 |
| Spread-Pick | KC | -2.5 |
| Spread-Pick | LAC | -4.5 |
| Spread-Pick | PIT | 6.0 |
Good luck!
Results for Week #15
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Lock | GB | 6 | Lost |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | CLE | 3 | Won |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | DAL | 3 | Lost |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | DET | 3 | Won |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | LAC | 3.5 | Won |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | MIA | 7 | Lost |
| 2018 | 15 | Spread-Pick | WAS | 7 | Won |
| 2018 | 15 | Moneyline-Pick | LAR | Lost | |
| 2018 | 15 | Moneyline-Pick | NO | Won |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 41 | 27 | 65.85% |
| Spread-Lock | 23 | 11 | 47.83% |
| Spread-Pick | 31 | 20 | 64.52% |
Bets to Make for Week #15
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | LAR | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NO | |
| Spread-Lock | GB | 6.0 |
| Spread-Pick | CLE | 3.0 |
| Spread-Pick | DAL | 3.0 |
| Spread-Pick | DET | 3.0 |
| Spread-Pick | LAC | 3.5 |
| Spread-Pick | MIA | 7.0 |
| Spread-Pick | WAS | 7.0 |
Good luck!
Results for Week #14
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | 5 | 2 | 40.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 14 | Spread-Lock | CLE | 1 | Won |
| 2018 | 14 | Spread-Lock | IND | 5 | Won |
| 2018 | 14 | Spread-Lock | MIA | 8 | Won |
| 2018 | 14 | Spread-Lock | MIN | 3 | Lost |
| 2018 | 14 | Spread-Pick | DET | -3 | Won |
| 2018 | 14 | Moneyline-Pick | DEN | Lost | |
| 2018 | 14 | Moneyline-Pick | LAC | Won | |
| 2018 | 14 | Moneyline-Pick | MIN | Lost | |
| 2018 | 14 | Moneyline-Pick | NYG | Won | |
| 2018 | 14 | Moneyline-Pick | PIT | Lost |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 39 | 26 | 66.67% |
| Spread-Lock | 22 | 11 | 50.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 25 | 16 | 64.00% |
Bets to Make for Week #14
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | DEN | |
| Moneyline-Pick | LAC | |
| Moneyline-Pick | MIN | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NYG | |
| Moneyline-Pick | PIT | |
| Spread-Lock | CLE | 1 |
| Spread-Lock | IND | 5 |
| Spread-Lock | MIA | 8 |
| Spread-Lock | MIN | 3 |
| Spread-Pick | DET | -3 |
Good luck!