NCAAM

I would be +2.5 units on 29 bets so far.

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I would be -5.15 units on ML bets and +7.65 on bets againts the spread so far.

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In total:
I picked 49.0 games out of 65 so far, which is: 75.38%
I picked 39 against the spread out of 65 so far, which is: 60.00%

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First of all, congrats to UVA on the excellent finish to their story.

But the story I care about is the story of my betting model. It was the only Cinderella story this year, and it held its ground. It was really good at picking the straight up winners (47/63, 74.6%) and against the spread (37/61, 2 Pushes, 60.7%) when picking every game. If I would have bet on $1 on every game, I could have made $1.20 on picking the right winners and $7.67 for picking the right team to cover. Picking winners isn’t impressive or profitable when they winner was heavily favored.

I had logic that tried to make “smart” bets, which is essentially where my predicted win percentage was very different than what Vegas predicted. Essentially, if I did this right, I could “beat Vegas” by only betting on the relatively sure-thing bets. I did not beat Vegas. For the “smart” bets, I would have lost $5.15 betting on the right winner but made $7.65 betting on the right team to cover. In both cases, I was better off picking every game rather than trying to pick a few games.

This gives me a clear, actionable result: bet more. Or fix the logic that makes the “smart” bets, but that seems way harder to do.

Better luck next year!

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I picked 100.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.00 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Texas Tech	1.0	Virginia	TTU 77 – UVA 85	Virginia	Virginia	–	–

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I picked 100.00% of games straight up and 50.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -1.00 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Auburn	6.0	Virginia	AUB 62 – UVA 63	Virginia	Virginia	–	Virginia
Texas Tech	2.5	Michigan State	TTU 61 – MSU 51	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	–	–

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I picked 0.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.00 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Auburn	5.0	Kentucky	AUB 77 – UK 71	Kentucky	Auburn	–	–
Michigan State	2.5	Duke	MSU 68 – DUKE 67	Duke	Michigan State	–	–

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I picked 50.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +1.82 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Texas Tech	5.0	Gonzaga	TTU 75 – GONZ 69	Gonzaga	Texas Tech	–	Texas Tech
Purdue	4.5	Virginia	PUR 75 – UVA 80	Virginia	Virginia	–	Virginia

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I picked 75.00% of games straight up and 25.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.91 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
LSU	6.0	Michigan State	LSU 63 – MSU 80	Michigan State	Michigan State	–	Michigan State
Auburn	6.0	North Carolina	AUB 97 – UNC 80	North Carolina	North Carolina	–	–
Virginia Tech	7.0	Duke	VT 73 – DUKE 75	Duke	Duke	–	–
Houston	3.0	Kentucky	HOU 58 – UK 62	Kentucky	Houston	–	–

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I picked 50.00% of games straight up and 75.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.91 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Florida State	7.5	Gonzaga	FSU 58 – GONZ 72	Gonzaga	Florida State	–	–
Purdue	2.0	Tennessee	PUR 99 – TENN 94	Tennessee	Purdue	–	–
Texas Tech	2.0	Michigan	TTU 63 – MICH 44	Michigan	Texas Tech	–	–
Oregon	8.0	Virginia	ORE 49 – UVA 53	Virginia	Oregon	–	Oregon

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