NCAAM

NCAAM Picks

matt9790 NCAAM, Uncategorized

Can I predict the results of NCAAM Games?

The short answer is no.

The long answer is that I can try. I created a big data model to pull in some data points about two teams playing against each other, then spit out a predicted score.  The idea is simple: to predict the score of an upcoming game, find a really similar game in the past and assume that the result of that game will be the result of the upcoming game. This is an example of a KNN Prediction Model, but the description is on the Projects Page. This page will be focused on the daily picks and running totals.

The current model is very similar to my old bracket creating model.  I have changed my data set since then, but the methodology is the same. 

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Results From Wednesday, March 11th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 65.62% of games straight up and 50.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -1.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +3.28 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
Sacramento State -4.0 Weber State SAC 62 – WEB 54 Sacramento State Sacramento State – –
Miami 4.0 Clemson MIA 64 – CLEM 69 Clemson Miami – –
Saint Joseph’s 5.5 George Mason JOES 70 – GMU 77 George Mason Saint Joseph’s – –
Idaho 12.5 Southern Utah IDHO 69 – SUU 75 Southern Utah Idaho – Idaho
Utah 3.5 Oregon State UTAH 69 – ORST 71 Oregon State Utah – –
Fordham 3.0 George Washington FOR 72 – GW 52 Fordham Fordham – Fordham
Idaho State 4.0 Northern Arizona IDST 64 – NAU 62 Northern Arizona Idaho State – –
Washington 6.0 Arizona WASH 70 – ARIZ 77 Arizona Washington – –
Texas A&M-CC 1.0 Northwestern State AMCC 62 – NWST 79 Texas A&M-CC Texas A&M-CC – –
Northwestern 8.5 Minnesota NW 57 – MINN 74 Minnesota Minnesota – Minnesota
Delaware State 9.5 North Carolina Central DSU 75 – NCCU 92 North Carolina Central Delaware State – Delaware State
Manhattan 6.5 Siena MAN 49 – SIE 63 Manhattan Manhattan Manhattan Manhattan
Florida Atlantic 2.5 Old Dominion FAU 66 – ODU 56 Old Dominion Florida Atlantic – –
St. John’s -3.5 Georgetown SJU 75 – GTWN 62 Georgetown Georgetown – –
Georgia 3.0 Ole Miss UGA 81 – MISS 63 Ole Miss Georgia – –
Iowa State 6.5 Oklahoma State ISU 71 – OKST 72 Iowa State Iowa State – Iowa State
Georgia Southern 5.0 Georgia State GASO 81 – GAST 62 Georgia Southern Georgia Southern – Georgia Southern
Boston College 9.0 Notre Dame BC 58 – ND 80 Notre Dame Boston College – –
Rice 2.0 Florida International RICE 76 – FIU 85 Florida International Rice – –
Appalachian State 7.0 Texas State APP 68 – TXST 85 Texas State Appalachian State – –
McNeese 1.5 Lamar MCN 59 – LAM 80 Lamar McNeese – –
Howard 10.5 North Carolina A&T HOW 77 – NCAT 86 North Carolina A&T Howard – Howard
Nebraska 14.5 Indiana NEB 64 – IND 89 Indiana Indiana – –
Vanderbilt 9.0 Arkansas VAN 73 – ARK 86 Arkansas Vanderbilt – –
Kansas State 2.0 TCU KSU 53 – TCU 49 TCU Kansas State – –
North Carolina -3.5 Syracuse UNC 53 – SYR 81 Syracuse Syracuse – Syracuse
California 9.5 Stanford CAL 63 – STAN 51 Stanford Stanford – Stanford
DePaul 6.5 Xavier DEP 71 – XAV 67 Xavier DePaul – DePaul
Iona 2.5 Saint Peter’s IONA 54 – SPU 56 Saint Peter’s Iona – –
UTSA 2.0 UAB UTSA 69 – UAB 74 UAB UTSA – –
UTEP 2.5 Marshall UTEP 78 – MRSH 86 Marshall UTEP – –
Washington State 8.5 Colorado WSU 82 – COLO 68 Colorado Colorado – Colorado

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Results From Tuesday, March 10th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 52.94% of games straight up and 23.53% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -1.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -2.27 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
Pittsburgh 0.0 Wake Forest PITT 81 – WAKE 72 Pittsburgh Wake Forest – –
Manhattan -2.5 Fairfield MAN 61 – FAIR 43 Fairfield Fairfield – –
Maryland-Eastern Shore 0.0 Delaware State UMES 64 – DSU 68 Delaware State Maryland-Eastern Shore – –
Alabama A&M 12.0 Prairie View A&M AAMU 60 – PV 82 Prairie View A&M Alabama A&M – Alabama A&M
Hartford 7.5 Stony Brook HART 64 – SB 58 Stony Brook Hartford – Hartford
UMBC 16.0 Vermont UMBC 74 – UVM 81 Vermont UMBC – UMBC
North Carolina -4.0 Virginia Tech UNC 78 – VT 56 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech – –
Canisius 3.5 Iona CAN 60 – IONA 70 Iona Canisius – –
St. Francis (PA) -1.5 Robert Morris SFPA 67 – RMU 77 Robert Morris Robert Morris – –
Northeastern 2.0 Hofstra NE 61 – HOF 70 Northeastern Northeastern – –
Howard 6.0 South Carolina State HOW 70 – SCST 63 South Carolina State Howard – Howard
Grambling 4.0 Texas Southern GRAM 62 – TXSO 75 Grambling Grambling – Grambling
Alabama State 9.5 Southern ALST 53 – SOU 67 Alabama State Alabama State Alabama State Alabama State
Saint Mary’s 9.0 #2 Gonzaga SMC 66 – GONZ 84 Gonzaga Saint Mary’s – –
Alcorn State 6.5 Jackson State ALCN 52 – JKST 69 Jackson State Alcorn State – Alcorn State
North Dakota 6.0 North Dakota State UND 53 – NDSU 89 North Dakota State North Dakota – North Dakota
Marist -1.0 Niagara MRST 54 – NIAG 56 Marist Marist – –

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Results From Monday, March 9th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 53.85% of games straight up and 38.46% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -1.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.64 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
Delaware 4.0 Hofstra DEL 61 – HOF 75 Hofstra Delaware – –
Oral Roberts 1.0 North Dakota State ORU 69 – NDSU 75 Oral Roberts Oral Roberts – –
Louisiana 8.5 Georgia Southern UL 81 – GASO 82 Georgia Southern Louisiana – Louisiana
Eastern Michigan 7.5 Kent State EMU 76 – KENT 86 Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan 9.5 Toledo WMU 73 – TOL 76 Toledo Western Michigan – Western Michigan
Central Michigan 5.0 Ohio CMU 65 – OHIO 85 Central Michigan Central Michigan – Central Michigan
Wofford 6.5 East Tennessee State WOF 58 – ETSU 72 East Tennessee State Wofford – –
Miami (OH) 9.0 Buffalo M-OH 85 – BUFF 79 Buffalo Miami (OH) – Miami (OH)
Elon 9.0 Northeastern ELON 60 – NE 68 Northeastern Elon – Elon
San Francisco 12.5 #2 Gonzaga SF 77 – GONZ 81 Gonzaga San Francisco – –
Purdue Fort Wayne 2.0 North Dakota PFW 56 – UND 73 Purdue Fort Wayne Purdue Fort Wayne – Purdue Fort Wayne
Green Bay 5.0 Northern Kentucky GB 69 – NKU 80 Northern Kentucky Green Bay – –
Saint Mary’s 4.0 #14 BYU SMC 51 – BYU 50 BYU BYU – –

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Results From Sunday, March 8th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 60.00% of games straight up and 30.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -3.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -2.18 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
#25 Michigan 5.0 #9 Maryland MICH 70 – MD 83 Michigan Michigan – –
Memphis 8.5 #21 Houston MEM 57 – HOU 64 Houston Houston – –
Drexel 8.0 Hofstra DREX 43 – HOF 61 Hofstra Drexel – Drexel
Hampton 12.5 Winthrop HAMP 68 – WIN 76 Winthrop Hampton – Hampton
Nebraska 16.0 Minnesota NEB 75 – MINN 107 Minnesota Minnesota Nebraska Minnesota
East Carolina 8.5 UCF ECU 62 – UCF 94 East Carolina East Carolina East Carolina East Carolina
Lafayette 10.5 Colgate LAF 64 – COLG 89 Colgate Lafayette – Lafayette
Valparaiso 2.5 Bradley VAL 66 – BRAD 80 Valparaiso Bradley – –
Delaware 1.5 Charleston DEL 79 – COFC 67 Charleston Charleston – –
Lipscomb 12.0 Liberty LIP 57 – LIB 73 Liberty Lipscomb Lipscomb –
UConn -6.5 Tulane CONN 80 – TULN 76 UConn UConn – –
Tulsa 7.0 Wichita State TLSA 57 – WICH 79 Tulsa Tulsa – –
Western Carolina 7.5 East Tennessee State WCU 75 – ETSU 97 East Tennessee State East Tennessee State – –
#19 Ohio State 6.5 #16 Michigan State OSU 69 – MSU 80 Ohio State Ohio State – Ohio State
Elon 5.5 William & Mary ELON 68 – W&M 63 William & Mary Elon – –
Wofford 1.0 Chattanooga WOF 72 – UTC 70 Wofford Wofford – –
#18 Iowa 3.5 #23 Illinois IOWA 76 – ILL 78 Iowa Iowa – –
Omaha 4.5 Oral Roberts OMA 52 – ORU 79 Oral Roberts Oral Roberts – –
Northeastern -2.0 Towson NE 72 – TOW 62 Northeastern Towson – –
North Dakota 6.0 South Dakota UND 74 – SDAK 71 North Dakota North Dakota – –

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Results From Saturday, March 7th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 41.67% of games straight up and 46.25% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +1.20 units
The ATS Bets were: -0.17 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
#14 Villanova -8.0 Georgetown VILL 70 – GTWN 69 Villanova Georgetown – Georgetown
#17 Auburn 2.5 Tennessee AUB 85 – TENN 63 Tennessee Tennessee – –
#24 Wisconsin 2.5 Indiana WIS 60 – IND 56 Indiana Wisconsin – –
Marquette -3.0 St. John’s MARQ 86 – SJU 88 St. John’s St. John’s – –
Sacred Heart 5.5 St. Francis (PA) SHU 72 – SFPA 84 Sacred Heart Sacred Heart – Sacred Heart
VMI 13.0 East Tennessee State VMI 57 – ETSU 70 VMI VMI VMI –
South Carolina -5.5 Vanderbilt SC 74 – VAN 83 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt – –
#4 Baylor 0.0 West Virginia BAY 64 – WVU 76 Baylor West Virginia – –
#6 Kentucky 2.5 Florida UK 71 – FLA 70 Florida Florida – –
New Hampshire 2.5 UMBC UNH 67 – UMBC 73 New Hampshire New Hampshire – –
#1 Kansas -3.0 Texas Tech KU 66 – TTU 62 Kansas Kansas – –
UTEP 2.5 Rice UTEP 77 – RICE 72 UTEP UTEP – –
Virginia Tech 7.5 Notre Dame VT 56 – ND 64 Notre Dame Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
George Mason -2.0 Fordham GMU 65 – FOR 61 Fordham Fordham – Fordham
La Salle 1.0 Saint Joseph’s LAS 78 – JOES 77 La Salle La Salle – –
Georgia 9.0 LSU UGA 64 – LSU 94 LSU Georgia – Georgia
Rutgers 5.5 Purdue RUTG 71 – PUR 68 Purdue Purdue – –
#8 Seton Hall 3.5 #11 Creighton HALL 60 – CREI 77 Seton Hall Creighton – –
Western Carolina -1.5 Mercer WCU 70 – MER 56 Mercer Mercer – Mercer
Colorado -2.5 Utah COLO 72 – UTAH 74 Colorado Colorado – –
Alabama 1.5 Missouri ALA 50 – MIZ 69 Alabama Alabama – –
UCLA 3.0 USC UCLA 52 – USC 54 USC USC – –
Drake 2.5 Bradley DRKE 66 – BRAD 76 Drake Bradley – –
#10 Louisville 2.0 #22 Virginia LOU 54 – UVA 57 Louisville Louisville – –
#20 Penn State -7.5 Northwestern PSU 69 – NW 80 Penn State Penn State – Penn State
Marshall 1.0 UTSA MRSH 82 – UTSA 77 Marshall Marshall – –
Northwestern State 5.5 Central Arkansas NWST 100 – UCA 85 Central Arkansas Northwestern State – Northwestern State
UNC Wilmington 4.0 Drexel UNCW 55 – DREX 66 UNC Wilmington UNC Wilmington – –
Syracuse -1.0 Miami SYR 65 – MIA 69 Syracuse Syracuse – –
Oklahoma State 4.0 Texas OKST 81 – TEX 59 Texas Oklahoma State – –
Iowa State 6.0 Kansas State ISU 63 – KSU 79 Kansas State Iowa State – Iowa State
Boston College 16.5 #7 Florida State BC 62 – FSU 80 Florida State Florida State – –
Arkansas -3.0 Texas A&M ARK 69 – TA&M 77 Arkansas Arkansas – –
Houston Baptist 9.0 Texas A&M-CC HB 78 – AMCC 84 Texas A&M-CC Houston Baptist – Houston Baptist
California 9.0 Oregon State CAL 56 – ORST 74 Oregon State California – –
Idaho State -1.0 Idaho IDST 76 – IDHO 80 Idaho State Idaho – –
UMass Lowell 2.0 Hartford UML 75 – HART 89 UMass Lowell Hartford – –
Weber State 12.0 Eastern Washington WEB 69 – EWU 78 Weber State Weber State Weber State Weber State
McNeese 3.5 Lamar MCN 70 – LAM 66 Lamar McNeese – –
Sam Houston State 10.5 Stephen F. Austin SHSU 57 – SFA 68 Stephen F. Austin Sam Houston State – Sam Houston State
North Carolina 10.5 #12 Duke UNC 76 – DUKE 89 Duke Duke – –
Southern Miss 4.5 Middle Tennessee USM 62 – MTSU 65 Southern Miss Southern Miss – –
Columbia 12.5 Pennsylvania CLMB 65 – PENN 85 Columbia Columbia Columbia Columbia
Cornell 11.5 Princeton COR 85 – PRIN 82 Princeton Cornell Cornell Cornell
Grambling -1.5 Alabama State GRAM 70 – ALST 58 Alabama State Alabama State – –
Wofford 6.0 Furman WOF 77 – FUR 68 Wofford Furman – –
Northern Colorado -6.0 Montana State UNCO 75 – MTST 61 Northern Colorado Northern Colorado – –
Oklahoma 1.0 TCU OKLA 78 – TCU 76 TCU TCU – –
Valparaiso 3.5 Missouri State VAL 89 – MOST 82 Missouri State Missouri State – –
Prairie View A&M 1.5 Southern PV 80 – SOU 89 Prairie View A&M Prairie View A&M – –
DePaul 10.0 Providence DEP 55 – PROV 93 Providence DePaul – DePaul
Ole Miss 6.0 Mississippi State MISS 44 – MSST 69 Mississippi State Ole Miss – –
James Madison 2.0 Elon JMU 61 – ELON 63 Elon Elon – –
Texas Southern -1.0 Alcorn State TXSO 75 – ALCN 90 Alcorn State Alcorn State – –
Washington State 9.5 Arizona State WSU 74 – ASU 83 Arizona State Washington State – Washington State
George Washington 20.5 #3 Dayton GW 51 – DAY 76 Dayton Dayton – –
Brown 5.0 Dartmouth BRWN 70 – DART 58 Dartmouth Brown – –
Yale -2.0 Harvard YALE 69 – HARV 83 Yale Yale – –
SE Louisiana 5.0 New Orleans SELA 69 – UNO 79 SE Louisiana SE Louisiana – SE Louisiana
Jackson State -3.0 Alabama A&M JKST 54 – AAMU 51 Jackson State Alabama A&M – –
SMU -1.0 South Florida SMU 60 – USF 61 South Florida South Florida – –
Rhode Island -3.0 UMass URI 64 – MASS 63 UMass Rhode Island – –
Charlotte 8.5 Louisiana Tech CHAR 43 – LT 66 Charlotte Charlotte Charlotte –
Western Kentucky 1.0 Florida International WKU 91 – FIU 85 Florida International Florida International – –
Denver 11.5 North Dakota State DEN 69 – NDSU 71 Denver Denver Denver Denver
Maine 19.5 Vermont ME 50 – UVM 61 Vermont Maine – Maine
Albany 7.0 Stony Brook ALB 73 – SB 76 Albany Albany – –
Old Dominion 2.5 UAB ODU 63 – UAB 72 Old Dominion Old Dominion – –
St. Bonaventure 5.0 Saint Louis SBU 49 – SLU 72 Saint Louis Saint Louis – –
Temple 10.5 Cincinnati TEM 63 – CIN 64 Cincinnati Temple – Temple
California Baptist 2.5 UT Rio Grande Valley CBU 76 – RIO 79 UT Rio Grande Valley California Baptist – –
CSU Bakersfield 2.5 Grand Canyon CSB 61 – GCU 64 CSU Bakersfield CSU Bakersfield – –
Mississippi Valley State 7.5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff MVSU 74 – UAPB 71 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Mississippi Valley State – Mississippi Valley State
Chattanooga 7.0 UNC Greensboro UTC 78 – UNCG 68 UNC Greensboro UNC Greensboro – –
Butler 2.5 Xavier BUT 72 – XAV 71 Butler Butler – Butler
Southern Utah 7.0 Montana SUU 85 – MONT 80 Southern Utah Southern Utah – Southern Utah
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.5 South Dakota State PFW 77 – SDST 74 Purdue Fort Wayne Purdue Fort Wayne Purdue Fort Wayne –
Washington 10.5 Arizona WASH 69 – ARIZ 63 Arizona Washington – –
Hawai’i 2.5 CSU Northridge HAW 82 – CSUN 86 Hawai’i Hawai’i – Hawai’i
UC Davis 4.5 UC Riverside UCD 61 – UCR 66 UC Davis UC Davis – –
Cal Poly 12.5 UC Santa Barbara CP 67 – UCSB 69 UC Santa Barbara Cal Poly Cal Poly Cal Poly
Sacramento State 4.0 Portland State SAC 72 – PRST 76 Sacramento State Sacramento State – Sacramento State
Long Beach State 5.0 CSU Fullerton LBSU 69 – CSF 75 CSU Fullerton Long Beach State – –
Stanford 7.5 #13 Oregon STAN 67 – ORE 80 Stanford Stanford Stanford –

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Results From Friday, March 6th

matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 46.67% of games straight up and 66.67% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.90 units
The ATS Bets were: -1.45 units

Away Team Spread Home Team Final Score To Win To Cover ML Bet ATS Bet
Drake 9.5 Northern Iowa DRKE 77 – UNI 56 Drake Northern Iowa Drake –
Southern Illinois 5.5 Bradley SIU 59 – BRAD 64 Southern Illinois Southern Illinois – –
VMI -3.0 Samford VMI 96 – SAM 78 VMI Samford – –
Gardner-Webb 5.5 Winthrop WEBB 66 – WIN 78 Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb – –
Buffalo 2.0 Bowling Green BUFF 88 – BGSU 84 Buffalo Buffalo – –
Kent State 5.5 Akron KENT 76 – AKR 79 Kent State Kent State Kent State –
Eastern Michigan 6.0 Toledo EMU 57 – TOL 79 Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan 7.0 Central Michigan WMU 68 – CMU 85 Central Michigan Western Michigan – Western Michigan
Georgia Tech 4.0 Clemson GT 65 – CLEM 62 Clemson Georgia Tech – –
Richmond -1.0 Duquesne RICH 73 – DUQ 62 Duquesne Duquesne – –
Niagara 6.0 Canisius NIAG 63 – CAN 67 Canisius Niagara – –
Fairfield 4.5 Manhattan FAIR 66 – MAN 50 Manhattan Manhattan – –
Iona 4.5 Saint Peter’s IONA 65 – SPU 68 Saint Peter’s Iona – –
Siena 1.5 Monmouth SIE 86 – MONM 72 Monmouth Siena – –
Brown 10.5 Harvard BRWN 64 – HARV 55 Harvard Brown Brown Brown
Columbia 11.0 Princeton CLMB 58 – PRIN 81 Columbia Columbia Columbia Columbia
Cornell 12.0 Pennsylvania COR 64 – PENN 78 Cornell Cornell Cornell Cornell
Yale -7.0 Dartmouth YALE 72 – DART 61 Dartmouth Dartmouth Dartmouth –
Valparaiso 5.0 Loyola Chicago VAL 74 – L-IL 73 Loyola Chicago Loyola Chicago – –
Ohio 1.0 Miami (OH) OHIO 67 – M-OH 65 Ohio Ohio – Ohio
The Citadel 14.5 Wofford CIT 76 – WOF 93 Wofford The Citadel – The Citadel
Eastern Kentucky 13.0 Belmont EKU 50 – BEL 60 Belmont Eastern Kentucky Eastern Kentucky Eastern Kentucky
Hampton 11.5 Radford HAMP 86 – RAD 78 Radford Hampton – Hampton
Ball State 1.5 Northern Illinois BALL 75 – NIU 54 Ball State Ball State – –
Boise State 9.0 #5 San Diego State BSU 68 – SDSU 81 San Diego State San Diego State – San Diego State
VCU 4.0 Davidson VCU 65 – DAV 75 VCU VCU – –
Missouri State -2.0 Indiana State MOST 78 – INST 51 Indiana State Indiana State – Indiana State
Austin Peay 1.5 Murray State APSU 61 – MURR 73 Murray State Murray State – –
Santa Clara 3.0 Pepperdine SCU 73 – PEPP 84 Pepperdine Santa Clara – –
Wyoming 15.5 Utah State WYO 82 – USU 89 Utah State Wyoming Wyoming –

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