Author: matt9790

These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	NO	ARI	ARI -2.0	5.547338
Sun 01:00PM	ATL	CIN	CIN -6.0	4.89627
Sun 01:00PM	CLE	BAL	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	DET	DAL	DAL -7.0	5.466992
Sun 01:00PM	GB	WAS	GB -5.0	109.037933
Sun 01:00PM	IND	TEN	IND +2.5	1008.359685
Sun 01:00PM	NYG	JAX	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TB	CAR	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	HOU	LV	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	NYJ	DEN	DEN -1.5	3.917887
Sun 04:25PM	KC	SF	SF +3.0	6.744597
Sun 04:25PM	SEA	LAC	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 08:20PM	PIT	MIA	No Bet	No Bet
Mon 08:15PM	CHI	NE	No Bet	No Bet

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I won 56% bets (5 of 9 games) this week

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
IND	34	JAX	27	IND -2.0	Covered
NO	26	CIN	30	NO +2.0	Did Not Cover
PHI	26	DAL	17	DAL +6.5	Did Not Cover
CLE	15	NE	38	NE +2.5	Covered
LA	24	CAR	10	LA -10.5	Covered
MIA	16	MIN	24	MIA +3.5	Did Not Cover
CHI	7	WAS	12	CHI -1.0	Did Not Cover
SEA	19	ARI	9	SEA +2.5	Covered
NYG	24	BAL	20	NYG +5.5	Covered

 

 

Over the full season, I have won 56% bets (10 of 18 games) this season

Week	Wins	Losses	Bets Placed	Bets Won
5	5	4	9	56%
6	5	4	9	56%

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These are the results for this week’s bets:

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
IND	34	JAX	27	IND -2.0	Covered
NO	26	CIN	30	NO +2.0	Did Not Cover
PHI	26	DAL	17	DAL +6.5	Did Not Cover
CLE	15	NE	38	NE +2.5	Covered
LA	24	CAR	10	LA -10.5	Covered
MIA	16	MIN	24	MIA +3.5	Did Not Cover
CHI	7	WAS	12	CHI -1.0	Did Not Cover
SEA	19	ARI	9	SEA +2.5	Covered
NYG	24	BAL	20	NYG +5.5	Covered

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These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	WAS	CHI	CHI -1.0	4.392196
Sun 01:00PM	BAL	NYG	NYG +5.5	5.055159
Sun 01:00PM	CIN	NO	NO +2.0	6.129075
Sun 01:00PM	JAX	IND	IND -2.0	1008.502336
Sun 01:00PM	MIN	MIA	MIA +3.5	6.421526
Sun 01:00PM	NE	CLE	NE +2.5	1007.672369
Sun 01:00PM	NYJ	GB	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	SF	ATL	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TB	PIT	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:05PM	ARI	SEA	SEA +2.5	8.782319
Sun 04:05PM	CAR	LA	LA -10.5	4.452431
Sun 04:25PM	BUF	KC	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 08:20PM	DAL	PHI	DAL +6.5	1008.814472
Mon 08:15PM	DEN	LAC	No Bet	No Bet

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These are the results for this week’s bets:

Home_Team	Home_Score	Away_Team	Away_Score	My_Bet	Bet Result
DEN	9	IND	12	IND +3.5	Covered
JAX	6	HOU	13	HOU +7.0	Covered
NE	29	DET	0	NE -3.0	Covered
NYJ	40	MIA	17	NYJ +3.0	Covered
LA	10	DAL	22	DAL +4.5	Covered
KC	30	LV	29	KC -7.0	Did Not Cover
ARI	17	PHI	20	ARI +5.5	Covered
GB	22	NYG	27	GB -8.5	Did Not Cover
WAS	17	TEN	21	WAS +2.5	Did Not Cover
TB	21	ATL	15	TB -9.0	Did Not Cover

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These are the best to make for the week, based on historical models:

Kickoff	AwayTeam	HomeTeam	Bet	BetRank
Thu 08:15PM	IND	DEN	IND +3.5	106.809493
Sun 09:30AM	NYG	GB	GB -8.5	8.437054
Sun 01:00PM	ATL	TB	TB -9.0	8.298578
Sun 01:00PM	CHI	MIN	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	DET	NE	NE -3.0	8.704827
Sun 01:00PM	HOU	JAX	HOU +7.0	1008.207282
Sun 01:00PM	LAC	CLE	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	MIA	NYJ	NYJ +3.0	4.490699
Sun 01:00PM	PIT	BUF	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	SEA	NO	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 01:00PM	TEN	WAS	WAS +2.5	8.486825
Sun 04:05PM	SF	CAR	No Bet	No Bet
Sun 04:25PM	DAL	LA	DAL +4.5	107.442864
Sun 04:25PM	PHI	ARI	ARI +5.5	6.051749
Sun 08:20PM	CIN	BAL	No Bet	No Bet
Mon 08:15PM	LV	KC	KC -7.0	6.360378

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Get ready for a new and improved model to pick NFL games in the upcoming season! These picks are the result of 4 different machine-learned models that have been optimized to win bets. In testing, these models won ~65% of the bets they placed, picking ~6 games per week. If this translates to real world results, then we are going to make some money.

Picks will be created starting in week 5 because we need 4 weeks of games to feed into the algorithms. Once we get there, bets will be posted on Wednesday afternoons. If I can make it work, this site will update during games to show how the picks are doing. After MNF, a new post will be created to show the win rate for the week and the whole season so far.

And now the long wait until week 5 :-/

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