Results for Week #7

October 25, 2017October 25, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Confident bets win percentage this week:
66.67%

All bets win percentage this week:
25.0%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	7	Confident	ATL	-4.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	Confident	OAK	3.0	Covered
2017	7	Confident	PIT	-3.0	Covered
2017	7	LessConfident	BAL	-3.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	CHI	9.0	Covered
2017	7	LessConfident	DEN	7.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	HOU	5.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	IND	10.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	MIN	-9.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	SF	13.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	TB	-2.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	WAS	2.0	Did Not Cover

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
56.52%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
50.0%

NFL Picks

October 21, 2017July 20, 2022 matt9790 NFL

Can I predict the results of NFL Games?

The short answer is no.

The long answer is that I can try, or at least make my computer try! Using small data, linear regression, and a ton of stats (I think it is ~40 relevant stats per team), I can start to predict the margin of NFL games. For fun and educational purposes only, I compare my picks against the spread set in Vegas to see if my picks were any good. Maybe these picks could come in handy if/when sports gambling is legal.

New picks every Wednesday, last week’s final results on Wednesday, and a few Weekend Updates after games finalize.

Bets to Make for Week #7

October 18, 2017October 18, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	BAL	5.5
Confident	CHI	3.0
Confident	SF	6.0
Confident	TEN	-5.5
Confident	WAS	4.5
LessConfident	ARI	3.5
LessConfident	ATL	3.0
LessConfident	DEN	1.5
LessConfident	GB	6.0
LessConfident	JAC	-3.5
LessConfident	MIA	-3.0
LessConfident	NYG	5.5
LessConfident	OAK	3.0
LessConfident	PIT	-5.5

Good luck!

Results for Week #6

October 18, 2017October 18, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Confident bets win percentage this week:
25.0%

All bets win percentage this week:
41.67%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	6	Confident	DET	4.5	0
2017	6	Confident	GB	-3.0	0
2017	6	Confident	NYG	12.0	1
2017	6	Confident	JAC	-2.5	0
2017	6	LessConfident	CHI	6.5	1
2017	6	LessConfident	CLE	10.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	KC	-5.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	MIA	11.5	1
2017	6	LessConfident	NYJ	10.0	1
2017	6	LessConfident	PHI	3.0	1
2017	6	LessConfident	WAS	-10.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	TB	-2.0	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
55.0%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
55.0%

Bets to Make for Week #6

October 11, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	DET	4.5
Confident	GB	-3.0
Confident	JAC	-2.5
Confident	NYG	12.0
LessConfident	CHI	6.5
LessConfident	CLE	10.0
LessConfident	KC	-5.0
LessConfident	MIA	11.5
LessConfident	NYJ	10.0
LessConfident	PHI	3.0
LessConfident	TB	-2.0
LessConfident	WAS	-10.0

Good luck!

Results for Week #5

October 11, 2017October 13, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Confident bets win percentage this week:
63.636%

All bets win percentage this week:
61.905%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	5	Confident	BUF	3.0	0
2017	5	Confident	CAR	3.0	1
2017	5	Confident	DAL	-2.0	0
2017	5	Confident	LAC	3.5	1
2017	5	Confident	OAK	-2.5	0
2017	5	Confident	SEA	1.0	1
2017	5	Confident	SF	1.5	0
2017	5	Confident	TB	6.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	ARI	6.5	0
2017	5	LessConfident	NYJ	0.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	PIT	-8.5	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
62.5%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
62.5%

Results for Week #5

October 11, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Confident bets win percentage this week:
50.0%

All bets win percentage this week:
45.4545454545%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	5	Confident	BUF	3.0	0
2017	5	Confident	CAR	3.0	1
2017	5	Confident	DAL	-2.0	0
2017	5	Confident	LAC	3.5	1
2017	5	Confident	OAK	-2.5	0
2017	5	Confident	SEA	1.0	1
2017	5	Confident	SF	1.5	0
2017	5	Confident	TB	6.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	ARI	6.5	0
2017	5	LessConfident	NYJ	0.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	PIT	-8.5	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
53.8461538462%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
53.8461538462%

Bets to Make for Week #5

October 4, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	BUF	3.0
Confident	CAR	3.0
Confident	DAL	-2.0
Confident	LAC	3.5
Confident	SEA	1.0
Confident	SF	1.5
Confident	TB	6.0
LessConfident	ARI	6.5
LessConfident	NYJ	0.0
LessConfident	PIT	-8.5

Good luck!

Results for Week #4

October 4, 2017 matt9790 NFL

Confident bets win percentage this week:
60.0%

All bets win percentage this week:
60.0%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	4	Confident	BUF	8.0	1
2017	4	Confident	NO	-3.0	1
2017	4	Confident	NYG	3.0	1
2017	4	Confident	OAK	3.0	0
2017	4	Confident	TEN	-1.5	0
2017	4	LessConfident	CAR	9.0	1
2017	4	LessConfident	CHI	7.5	0
2017	4	LessConfident	CIN	-3.5	1
2017	4	LessConfident	IND	13.0	0
2017	4	LessConfident	JAC	-3.5	0
2017	4	LessConfident	KC	-7.0	1
2017	4	LessConfident	LAC	-1.0	0
2017	4	LessConfident	LAR	6.0	1
2017	4	LessConfident	PIT	-3.0	1
2017	4	LessConfident	SF	7.0	1

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
60.0%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
60.0%

Can I Make a Better Bracket This Year?

March 1, 2017October 3, 2017 matt9790 MainPage

Every year, my fiancée and I have a bracket challenge. She usually beats me, even though I watch way more games, talk to friends about games, watch more ESPN, read more articles…. So it was time to change things up.

It is time to use machine learning to make a better bracket. Will it work? To answer that question, I need to answer three more direct questions:

Can I predict who wins an NCAAB game?
- See how I predict games HERE
Do those predictions help “predict” previous year’s brackets?
- I “predicted” 2015 and 2016 HERE
Will it work in 2017?
- I will make a 2017 bracket, and post it HERE