Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | HOU | |
| Moneyline-Pick | KC | |
| Moneyline-Pick | LAC | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NE | |
| Spread-Lock | HOU | -5.0 |
| Spread-Pick | LAC | -6.5 |
Good luck!
Author: matt9790
NFL Season 2019
Happy new season!
Due to the limitations of the prediction model, no picks will be made until Week 5. We will have to suffer together by only watching the games without any bets to watch.
Once we hit Week 5, picks will be made, games will be played, sports betting will become legal in more states, and then maybe some money will be won.
It is good to be back!
Total Betting Performance
Historical Betting Performance
Historical Performance
In total:
I picked 49.0 games out of 65 so far, which is: 75.38%
I picked 39 against the spread out of 65 so far, which is: 60.00%
End Of Tournament Wrap Up
First of all, congrats to UVA on the excellent finish to their story.
But the story I care about is the story of my betting model. It was the only Cinderella story this year, and it held its ground. It was really good at picking the straight up winners (47/63, 74.6%) and against the spread (37/61, 2 Pushes, 60.7%) when picking every game. If I would have bet on $1 on every game, I could have made $1.20 on picking the right winners and $7.67 for picking the right team to cover. Picking winners isn’t impressive or profitable when they winner was heavily favored.
I had logic that tried to make “smart” bets, which is essentially where my predicted win percentage was very different than what Vegas predicted. Essentially, if I did this right, I could “beat Vegas” by only betting on the relatively sure-thing bets. I did not beat Vegas. For the “smart” bets, I would have lost $5.15 betting on the right winner but made $7.65 betting on the right team to cover. In both cases, I was better off picking every game rather than trying to pick a few games.
This gives me a clear, actionable result: bet more. Or fix the logic that makes the “smart” bets, but that seems way harder to do.
Better luck next year!
Results From Monday, April 8th
I picked 100.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.00 units
| Away Team | Spread | Home Team | Final Score | To Win | To Cover | ML Bet | ATS Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 1.0 | Virginia | TTU 77 – UVA 85 | Virginia | Virginia | – | – |
Results From Saturday, April 6th
I picked 100.00% of games straight up and 50.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -1.00 units
| Away Team | Spread | Home Team | Final Score | To Win | To Cover | ML Bet | ATS Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | 6.0 | Virginia | AUB 62 – UVA 63 | Virginia | Virginia | – | Virginia |
| Texas Tech | 2.5 | Michigan State | TTU 61 – MSU 51 | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | – | – |
Results From Sunday, March 31st
I picked 0.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.00 units
| Away Team | Spread | Home Team | Final Score | To Win | To Cover | ML Bet | ATS Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | 5.0 | Kentucky | AUB 77 – UK 71 | Kentucky | Auburn | – | – |
| Michigan State | 2.5 | Duke | MSU 68 – DUKE 67 | Duke | Michigan State | – | – |
Results From Saturday, March 30th
I picked 50.00% of games straight up and 100.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +0.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +1.82 units
| Away Team | Spread | Home Team | Final Score | To Win | To Cover | ML Bet | ATS Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 5.0 | Gonzaga | TTU 75 – GONZ 69 | Gonzaga | Texas Tech | – | Texas Tech |
| Purdue | 4.5 | Virginia | PUR 75 – UVA 80 | Virginia | Virginia | – | Virginia |