matt9790 – Page 11 – Matt Fink's Site

Results From Thursday, February 13th

February 14, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 58.18% of games straight up and 51.85% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +2.75 units
The ATS Bets were: +8.20 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
Bryant	4.5	Sacred Heart	BRY 65 – SHU 74	Sacred Heart	Bryant	–	–
Longwood	6.0	UNC Asheville	LONG 71 – UNCA 73	UNC Asheville	Longwood	–	Longwood
North Alabama	2.0	Stetson	UNA 64 – STET 75	North Alabama	North Alabama	–	–
Wagner	4.5	Fairleigh Dickinson	WAG 73 – FDU 106	Fairleigh Dickinson	Wagner	–	–
Delaware	-3.0	Elon	DEL 81 – ELON 75	Elon	Elon	–	Elon
UNC Wilmington	12.5	Northeastern	UNCW 63 – NE 71	Northeastern	UNC Wilmington	UNC Wilmington	UNC Wilmington
Cleveland State	8.0	Oakland	CLEV 74 – OAK 79	Oakland	Cleveland State	–	Cleveland State
Eastern Kentucky	3.5	Morehead State	EKU 78 – MORE 71	Morehead State	Eastern Kentucky	–	–
Wichita State	-3.5	UCF	WICH 75 – UCF 58	Wichita State	UCF	–	–
Memphis	7.0	Cincinnati	MEM 86 – CIN 92	Cincinnati	Memphis	–	–
Florida Gulf Coast	-7.5	Kennesaw State	FGCU 70 – KENN 58	Florida Gulf Coast	Kennesaw State	–	Kennesaw State
Jacksonville	8.5	North Florida	JU 66 – UNF 81	North Florida	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Hampton	5.5	Campbell	HAMP 49 – CAM 75	Campbell	Campbell	–	–
Charleston	4.5	Hofstra	COFC 63 – HOF 76	Hofstra	Charleston	–	–
Drexel	5.5	William & Mary	DREX 72 – W&M 77	William & Mary	Drexel	–	Drexel
Jacksonville State	-3.5	Tennessee Tech	JVST 74 – TNTC 75	Jacksonville State	Tennessee Tech	–	–
Appalachian State	6.0	Georgia State	APP 65 – GAST 76	Georgia State	Appalachian State	–	–
UL Monroe	6.0	Troy	ULM 74 – TROY 71	Troy	UL Monroe	–	UL Monroe
Winthrop	-5.0	Gardner-Webb	WIN 70 – WEBB 74	Winthrop	Gardner-Webb	–	Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian	10.5	Radford	PRE 71 – RAD 81	Radford	Presbyterian	–	Presbyterian
Florida International	10.0	Louisiana Tech	FIU 57 – LT 60	Louisiana Tech	Florida International	–	–
High Point	9.0	Charleston Southern	HPU 63 – CHSO 66	Charleston Southern	High Point	–	High Point
NJIT	3.5	Lipscomb	NJIT 63 – LIP 77	Lipscomb	NJIT	–	–
#21 Iowa	2.5	Indiana	IOWA 77 – IND 89	Iowa	Iowa	–	Iowa
Tennessee State	12.5	Belmont	TNST 51 – BEL 74	Belmont	Tennessee State	Tennessee State	Tennessee State
Utah Valley	4.5	UT Rio Grande Valley	UVU 72 – RIO 80	UT Rio Grande Valley	Utah Valley	–	–
Arkansas State	7.0	UT Arlington	ARST 67 – UTA 77	UT Arlington	Arkansas State	–	–
Little Rock	3.0	Texas State	UALR 66 – TXST 74	Texas State	Texas State	–	–
Florida Atlantic	-2.0	Southern Miss	FAU 66 – USM 68	Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss	–	–
Old Dominion	1.0	Rice	ODU 73 – RICE 70	Old Dominion	Old Dominion	–	Old Dominion
Louisiana	6.5	South Alabama	UL 75 – SALA 78	South Alabama	Louisiana	–	Louisiana
Northern Colorado	-4.0	Northern Arizona	UNCO 84 – NAU 54	Northern Colorado	Northern Colorado	–	–
Charlotte	8.5	North Texas	CHAR 72 – UNT 81	North Texas	Charlotte	–	–
UT Martin	1.0	SE Missouri St	UTM 72 – SEMO 74	SE Missouri St	SE Missouri St	–	–
SIU-Edwardsville	10.5	Eastern Illinois	SIUE 76 – EIU 74	Eastern Illinois	SIU-Edwardsville	–	SIU-Edwardsville
#16 Colorado	5.0	#17 Oregon	COLO 60 – ORE 68	Oregon	Colorado	–	Colorado
Utah	5.0	Oregon State	UTAH 51 – ORST 70	Oregon State	Oregon State	–	–
Idaho State	7.5	Montana State	IDST 69 – MTST 73	Montana State	Idaho State	–	Idaho State
Weber State	8.0	Montana	WEB 37 – MONT 72	Montana	Weber State	–	Weber State
Marshall	-1.0	UTSA	MRSH 63 – UTSA 72	Marshall	UTSA	–	–
Washington	2.5	USC	WASH 56 – USC 62	Washington	Washington	–	Washington
San Francisco	-2.0	Santa Clara	SF 70 – SCU 61	San Francisco	Santa Clara	–	–
Western Kentucky	-2.0	UTEP	WKU 67 – UTEP 62	UTEP	UTEP	–	UTEP
Seattle	10.0	New Mexico State	SEA 64 – NMSU 72	New Mexico State	Seattle	–	Seattle
Murray State	3.0	Austin Peay	MURR 68 – APSU 71	Austin Peay	Murray State	–	–
Chicago State	21.0	CSU Bakersfield	CHIC 54 – CSB 64	CSU Bakersfield	Chicago State	–	Chicago State
UC Santa Barbara	-3.0	UC Davis	UCSB 75 – UCD 84	UC Davis	UC Davis	–	UC Davis
Portland	12.0	Pacific	PORT 55 – PAC 75	Pacific	Portland	Portland	Portland
Cal Poly	8.5	CSU Northridge	CP 73 – CSUN 81	CSU Northridge	Cal Poly	–	Cal Poly
Southern Utah	0.0	Sacramento State	SUU 55 – SAC 70	Southern Utah	Southern Utah	–	–
Arizona	-10.0	California	ARIZ 68 – CAL 52	Arizona	Arizona	–	Arizona
Idaho	15.0	Eastern Washington	IDHO 74 – EWU 71	Eastern Washington	Idaho	Idaho	Idaho
Arizona State	2.5	Stanford	ASU 74 – STAN 69	Stanford	Stanford	–	–
San Diego	9.0	Pepperdine	USD 69 – PEPP 72	Pepperdine	San Diego	San Diego	San Diego
Washington State	7.5	UCLA	WSU 83 – UCLA 86	UCLA	Washington State	–	Washington State

New Prediction Logic

February 13, 2020February 13, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

Starting with the picks for Feb 13th, the predictions will be made using an aggregated score prediction from multiple machine learning models. In theory and in my own testing, the predictions get better when a multitude of models are combined. Best of luck out there!

Results From Wednesday, February 12th

February 13, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 70.59% of games straight up and 62.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -5.00 units
The ATS Bets were: +8.47 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
#23 Creighton	6.0	#10 Seton Hall	CREI 87 – HALL 82	Seton Hall	Creighton	–	–
Xavier	6.0	#19 Butler	XAV 61 – BUT 66	Butler	Xavier	–	–
South Carolina	2.5	Georgia	SC 75 – UGA 59	Georgia	Georgia	–	–
#3 Kansas	1.5	#14 West Virginia	KU 58 – WVU 49	West Virginia	Kansas	–	–
Alabama	8.0	#11 Auburn	ALA 91 – AUB 95	Auburn	Auburn	–	–
UConn	5.0	SMU	CONN 75 – SMU 79	SMU	UConn	–	UConn
George Mason	14.5	VCU	GMU 72 – VCU 67	VCU	VCU	–	VCU
Richmond	-4.5	La Salle	RICH 74 – LAS 47	Richmond	Richmond	–	Richmond
Albany	2.5	Hartford	ALB 60 – HART 66	Hartford	Albany	–	–
Loyola (MD)	3.5	American	L-MD 76 – AMER 81	American	American	–	American
Lafayette	-2.0	Army	LAF 48 – ARMY 65	Lafayette	Lafayette	–	–
Bucknell	3.0	Navy	BUCK 59 – NAVY 60	Navy	Navy	–	–
Holy Cross	8.0	Lehigh	HC 82 – LEH 89	Lehigh	Holy Cross	–	–
Rutgers	5.5	Ohio State	RUTG 66 – OSU 72	Ohio State	Ohio State	–	–
The Citadel	21.5	East Tennessee State	CIT 67 – ETSU 91	East Tennessee State	East Tennessee State	–	East Tennessee State
Western Carolina	11.5	UNC Greensboro	WCU 62 – UNCG 82	UNC Greensboro	UNC Greensboro	–	UNC Greensboro
Stony Brook	-8.5	Binghamton	SB 75 – BING 70	Stony Brook	Binghamton	–	Binghamton
VMI	8.0	Chattanooga	VMI 67 – UTC 86	Chattanooga	VMI	–	–
Mercer	7.5	Wofford	MER 70 – WOF 68	Wofford	Mercer	–	–
Boston College	4.0	Miami	BC 58 – MIA 85	Miami	Boston College	–	–
Maine	6.0	UMass Lowell	ME 63 – UML 71	UMass Lowell	Maine	–	–
New Hampshire	15.0	Vermont	UNH 50 – UVM 74	Vermont	Vermont	–	Vermont
Canisius	-2.0	Niagara	CAN 66 – NIAG 69	Canisius	Niagara	–	–
Loyola Chicago	-8.5	Evansville	L-IL 73 – EVAN 66	Loyola Chicago	Evansville	–	–
Furman	-12.0	Samford	FUR 86 – SAM 71	Furman	Furman	–	Furman
#5 Louisville	-6.5	Georgia Tech	LOU 58 – GT 64	Louisville	Georgia Tech	–	–
Sam Houston State	-8.5	SE Louisiana	SHSU 79 – SELA 70	Sam Houston State	SE Louisiana	–	SE Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin	-9.0	Texas A&M-CC	SFA 75 – AMCC 67	Stephen F. Austin	Texas A&M-CC	–	Texas A&M-CC
Indiana State	6.0	Bradley	INST 61 – BRAD 72	Bradley	Indiana State	Indiana State	Indiana State
Drake	2.0	Missouri State	DRKE 62 – MOST 97	Missouri State	Missouri State	–	–
Illinois State	13.5	Northern Iowa	ILST 63 – UNI 71	Northern Iowa	Northern Iowa	–	Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois	4.0	Valparaiso	SIU 38 – VAL 55	Valparaiso	Southern Illinois	–	Southern Illinois
Western Illinois	14.5	South Dakota	WIU 72 – SDAK 85	South Dakota	Western Illinois	Western Illinois	Western Illinois
Lamar	7.5	Nicholls	LAM 65 – NICH 69	Nicholls	Lamar	–	–
Temple	-3.0	Tulane	TEM 72 – TULN 68	Temple	Tulane	–	–
East Carolina	10.5	Tulsa	ECU 56 – TLSA 70	Tulsa	Tulsa	–	–
Omaha	6.5	Oral Roberts	OMA 78 – ORU 81	Oral Roberts	Omaha	–	–
New Orleans	5.0	Central Arkansas	UNO 68 – UCA 73	Central Arkansas	Central Arkansas	–	–
Middle Tennessee	7.5	UAB	MTSU 72 – UAB 83	UAB	UAB	–	–
#18 Marquette	5.5	#15 Villanova	MARQ 71 – VILL 72	Marquette	Marquette	Marquette	Marquette
Houston Baptist	15.5	Abilene Christian	HB 67 – ACU 81	Abilene Christian	Houston Baptist	Houston Baptist	Houston Baptist
Providence	-1.5	St. John’s	PROV 69 – SJU 80	St. John’s	St. John’s	–	St. John’s
Florida	-5.5	Texas A&M	FLA 78 – TA&M 61	Florida	Florida	–	Florida
#20 Houston	-6.0	South Florida	HOU 62 – USF 58	Houston	Houston	–	Houston
Clemson	4.0	Pittsburgh	CLEM 72 – PITT 52	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	–	–
Iowa State	9.5	Oklahoma	ISU 61 – OKLA 90	Oklahoma	Iowa State	Iowa State	Iowa State
Michigan	-6.0	Northwestern	MICH 79 – NW 54	Michigan	Michigan	–	–
Nevada	1.5	UNLV	NEV 82 – UNLV 79	Nevada	Nevada	–	Nevada
UC Irvine	-4.5	UC Riverside	UCI 63 – UCR 59	UC Irvine	UC Riverside	–	–
Fresno State	-6.5	San Jose St	FRES 84 – SJSU 78	Fresno State	San Jose St	–	San Jose St
Long Beach State	12.0	Hawai’i	LBSU 50 – HAW 49	Hawai’i	Long Beach State	–	Long Beach State

Results From Tuesday, February 11th

February 12, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 80.00% of games straight up and 60.00% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: +1.30 units
The ATS Bets were: +0.64 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
#13 Penn State	4.5	Purdue	PSU 88 – PUR 76	Purdue	Purdue	–	–
#12 Kentucky	-12.0	Vanderbilt	UK 78 – VAN 64	#12 Kentucky	#12 Kentucky	–	–
Mississippi State	-1.0	Ole Miss	MSST 58 – MISS 83	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	–	Mississippi State
Fordham	14.0	Davidson	FOR 49 – DAV 79	Davidson	Davidson	Fordham	–
Bowling Green	7.0	Akron	BGSU 59 – AKR 74	Akron	Akron	–	Akron
Miami (OH)	9.0	Toledo	M-OH 57 – TOL 65	Toledo	Miami (OH)	–	–
Eastern Michigan	6.5	Central Michigan	EMU 73 – CMU 70	Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan	6.5	Ohio	WMU 61 – OHIO 73	Ohio	Western Michigan	–	–
St. Bonaventure	-8.0	Saint Joseph’s	SBU 74 – JOES 56	St. Bonaventure	Saint Joseph’s	–	Saint Joseph’s
Arkansas	2.5	Tennessee	ARK 61 – TENN 82	Tennessee	Arkansas	–	–
Northern #22 Illinois	7.5	Ball State	NIU 59 – BALL 63	Ball State	Northern #22 Illinois	–	–
Rhode Island	10.0	#6 Dayton	URI 67 – DAY 81	#6 Dayton	Rhode Island	–	–
North Carolina	-2.0	Wake Forest	UNC 57 – WAKE 74	Wake Forest	Wake Forest	–	Wake Forest
Nebraska	17.0	#9 Maryland	NEB 70 – MD 72	#9 Maryland	#9 Maryland	–	#9 Maryland
Michigan State	-2.0	#22 Illinois	MSU 70 – ILL 69	Michigan State	Michigan State	–	–
Missouri	11.0	#25 LSU	MIZ 78 – #25 LSU	#25 LSU	Missouri	–	–
Air Force	10.5	Boise State	AFA 57 – BSU 74	Boise State	Boise State	–	–
Notre Dame	4.5	Virginia	ND 49 – UVA 50	Virginia	Virginia	–	–
Utah State	-2.0	Colorado State	USU 75 – CSU 72	Utah State	Colorado State	–	–
New Mexico	16.0	#4 San Diego State	UNM 59 – SDSU 82	#4 San Diego State	#4 San Diego State	–	#4 San Diego State

Results From Monday, February 10th

February 11, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 75.00% of games straight up and 46.67% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -1.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -3.18 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
#8 Florida State	7.5	#7 Duke	FSU 65 – DUKE 70	#7 Duke	#7 Duke	–	–
Campbell	1.5	Longwood	CAM 56 – LONG 57	Campbell	Campbell	–	–
High Point	11.5	Gardner-Webb	HPU 55 – WEBB 86	Gardner-Webb	High Point	–	High Point
UNC Asheville	2.0	Hampton	UNCA 70 – HAMP 80	Hampton	UNC Asheville	–	–
Radford	7.5	Winthrop	RAD 81 – WIN 77	Winthrop	Radford	–	–
Colgate	2.0	Boston University	COLG 79 – BU 63	Boston University	Colgate	–	–
Howard	12.5	Bethune-Cookman	HOW 68 – BCU 87	Bethune-Cookman	Howard	Howard	Howard
Maryland-Eastern Shore	10.0	Coppin State	UMES 67 – COPP 68	Coppin State	Maryland-Eastern Shore	–	Maryland-Eastern Shore
Delaware State	10.0	South Carolina State	DSU 86 – SCST 100	South Carolina State	Delaware State	–	Delaware State
North Carolina Central	-1.0	Morgan State	NCCU 58 – MORG 57	North Carolina Central	Morgan State	–	–
Alcorn State	4.0	Grambling	ALCN 71 – GRAM 80	Grambling	Grambling	–	Grambling
Alabama State	-4.5	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	ALST 57 – UAPB 49	Alabama State	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	–	Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#1 Baylor	-6.0	Texas	BAY 52 – TEX 45	#1 Baylor	Texas	–	–
Portland State	9.0	Northern Colorado	PRST 83 – UNCO 71	Northern Colorado	Northern Colorado	–	Northern Colorado
TCU	10.0	#24 Texas Tech	TCU 42 – TTU 88	#24 Texas Tech	TCU	–	–
Southern	3.0	Jackson State	SOU 51 – JKST 67	Jackson State	Jackson State	–	–

Results From Sunday, February 9th

February 10, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

I picked 66.67% of games straight up and 33.33% against the spread correctly:
The ML Bets were: -1.00 units
The ATS Bets were: -4.09 units

Away Team	Spread	Home Team	Final Score	To Win	To Cover	ML Bet	ATS Bet
#19 Butler	3.5	Marquette	BUT 57 – MARQ 76	Marquette	#19 Butler	–	#19 Butler
Cincinnati	-2.0	UConn	CIN 71 – CONN 72	Cincinnati	UConn	–	–
Samford	18.0	UNC Greensboro	SAM 67 – UNCG 95	UNC Greensboro	UNC Greensboro	–	–
Ohio State	1.5	Wisconsin	OSU 57 – WIS 70	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	–	–
Tulsa	2.0	UCF	TLSA 75 – UCF 83	Tulsa	Tulsa	–	Tulsa
Iona	2.5	Fairfield	IONA 78 – FAIR 54	Fairfield	Fairfield	–	–
Saint Peter’s	4.5	Monmouth	SPU 81 – MONM 69	Monmouth	Saint Peter’s	–	–
Niagara	9.5	Rider	NIAG 58 – RID 73	Rider	Niagara	–	–
Princeton	-3.5	Columbia	PRIN 81 – CLMB 74	Princeton	Columbia	–	–
Pennsylvania	-5.0	Cornell	PENN 79 – COR 73	Pennsylvania	Cornell	–	Cornell
Manhattan	1.5	Quinnipiac	MAN 65 – QUIN 63	Quinnipiac	Manhattan	–	–
Evansville	12.5	Bradley	EVAN 58 – BRAD 69	Bradley	Evansville	Evansville	Evansville
George Mason	1.5	UMass	GMU 67 – MASS 69	UMass	George Mason	–	–
Wichita State	5.0	#25 Houston	WICH 43 – HOU 76	#25 Houston	Wichita State	–	–
Valparaiso	8.5	Loyola Chicago	VAL 68 – L-IL 70	Loyola Chicago	Loyola Chicago	–	Loyola Chicago
Notre Dame	1.0	Clemson	ND 61 – CLEM 57	Notre Dame	Notre Dame	–	–
Washington	-3.0	Washington State	WASH 67 – WSU 79	Washington	Washington	–	Washington
Northwestern	11.0	Rutgers	NW 73 – RUTG 77	Rutgers	Northwestern	–	–

End of the 2019 Season

February 9, 2020February 9, 2020 matt9790 NFL

What a season! My predictions were pretty terrible until the middle of the year, when I rewrote the prediction logic from the ground up before making the picks in Week 11.

Since Week 11, I picked 66% correctly against the spread, which would be hugely profitable. Weirdly, I wasn’t able to do much better picking the straight up winners.

This off season, I am going to pull in several new data sets into my prediction model, but keep most of the same logic in place. Several of my current data sets need manual intervention frequently to keep working, and my goal is to automate this completely.

While you wait for the next season, be sure to check out my NCAA Basketball picks and the MLB TweetBots!

College Basketball 2019-2020

February 9, 2020February 9, 2020 matt9790 NCAAM

Now that the “big game” is over, it is time for me to shift my focus to college basketball. It seems like this year is a dumpster fire, and I have no idea if that means my predictions will be much better or much worse. Only one way to find out!

I am converting my entire process from python 2 to python 3, and I expect it to go poorly for the first few weeks. Everything should be back to normal before conference tournaments.

Good luck out there!

Results for Week #16

December 23, 2019 matt9790 NFL

This week, my results:

	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline	10	5	50.00%
Spread	8	4	50.00%

My bets from this week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team	Note	Result
2019	16	Spread	ARI	9.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	CAR	7	Lost
2019	16	Spread	CIN	1	Lost
2019	16	Spread	DAL	-3	Lost
2019	16	Spread	DET	7	Lost
2019	16	Spread	GB	4.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	NYG	2.5	Won
2019	16	Spread	OAK	7	Won
2019	16	Spread	TB	3	Push
2019	16	Moneyline	BAL		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	CIN		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	DAL		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	DEN		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	IND		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	KC		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	MIN		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	NYG		Won
2019	16	Moneyline	PIT		Lost
2019	16	Moneyline	TB		Lost

For the whole year so far:

Bet Type	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline	59	40	67.80%
Spread	47	31	65.96%

Bets to Make for Week #16

December 18, 2019 matt9790 NFL

Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team	Note
Moneyline	BAL
Moneyline	CIN
Moneyline	DAL
Moneyline	DEN
Moneyline	IND
Moneyline	KC
Moneyline	MIN
Moneyline	NYG
Moneyline	PIT
Moneyline	TB
Spread	ARI	9.5
Spread	CAR	7
Spread	CIN	1
Spread	DAL	-3
Spread	DET	7
Spread	GB	4.5
Spread	NYG	2.5
Spread	OAK	7
Spread	TB	3

Good luck!