As of the 2/27/2020. a new methodology is being used to predict the Money Line (straight up) winners and the ML Bets (Money Line bets with good expected values)
Previously, the predicted winner of the game was determined by the predicted margin, and the size of the margin was extrapolated to determine the percent likelihood of a team winning.
Going forward, a logistic regression will be used to determine the likelihood of a win, which is also in the math to determine a good Money Line bet. The percent chance of winning is multiplied by the return of the bet, resulting in an expected value. When the expected value of a bet is greater than 1.25 (expected profit = 25% of bet) then the bet will be listed in the “ML Bet” column.