Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | BAL | |
| Moneyline-Pick | CHI | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NE | |
| Spread-Lock | BAL | -3 |
| Spread-Lock | NE | -6 |
| Spread-Pick | NO | -1 |
| Spread-Pick | TB | 7 |
Good luck!
Month: October 2018
Results for Week #8
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8 | Spread-Pick | HOU | -7 | Won |
| 2018 | 8 | Moneyline-Pick | HOU | Won | |
| 2018 | 8 | Moneyline-Pick | IND | Won | |
| 2018 | 8 | Moneyline-Pick | LAR | Won | |
| 2018 | 8 | Moneyline-Pick | TB | Lost | |
| 2018 | 8 | Moneyline-Pick | WAS | Won |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 17 | 11 | 64.71% |
| Spread-Lock | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 9 | 7 | 77.78% |
Bets to Make for Week #7
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | HOU | |
| Moneyline-Pick | IND | |
| Moneyline-Pick | LAR | |
| Moneyline-Pick | TB | |
| Moneyline-Pick | WAS | |
| Spread-Pick | HOU | -7 |
Good luck!
Results for Week #7
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 1 | nan | nan% |
| Spread-Pick | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Lock | PHI | -5 | Lost |
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Pick | DAL | 1 | Lost |
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Pick | HOU | 5 | Won |
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Pick | NE | -3 | Won |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Lock | MIN | Won | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Lock | PHI | Lost | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | DAL | Lost | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | LAR | Won |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 12 | 7 | 58.33% |
| Spread-Lock | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 8 | 6 | 75.00% |
Bets to Make for Week #7
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | MIN | |
| Moneyline-Lock | PHI | |
| Moneyline-Pick | DAL | |
| Moneyline-Pick | LAR | |
| Spread-Lock | PHI | -5 |
| Spread-Pick | DAL | 1 |
| Spread-Pick | HOU | 5 |
| Spread-Pick | NE | -3 |
Good luck!
Results for Week #6
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread-Pick | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| MoneyLine-Pick | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
My bets from this week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Pick | DEN | 7 | Won |
| 2018 | 7 | Spread-Pick | WAS | -1 | Won |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | ARI | Lost | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | GB | Won | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | HOU | Won | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | IND | Lost | |
| 2018 | 7 | Moneyline-Pick | WAS | Won |
For the whole year so far:
| Bet Type | Bets | Wins | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 10 | 6 | 60.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 7 | 5 | 71.43% |
Bets to Make for Week #6
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Pick | ARI | |
| Moneyline-Pick | GB | |
| Moneyline-Pick | HOU | |
| Moneyline-Pick | IND | |
| Moneyline-Pick | WAS | |
| Spread-Pick | DEN | 7 |
| Spread-Pick | WAS | -1 |
Good luck!
Results for Week #5
This week, my results:
| Bets | Wins | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| Moneyline-Pick | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| Spread-Lock | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| Spread-Pick | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
My bets from last week:
| Year | Week | BetType | Team | Note | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Lock | ARI | 4 | Won |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Lock | GB | -1 | Lost |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Lock | IND | 10 | Lost |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Lock | MIA | 6 | Lost |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Pick | BUF | 3 | Won |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Pick | DAL | 3 | Push |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Pick | NO | -6 | Won |
| 2018 | 5 | Spread-Pick | OAK | 5 | Lost |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Lock | ARI | Won | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Lock | NO | Won | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Pick | BUF | Won | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Pick | CAR | Won | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Pick | GB | Lost | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Pick | NYJ | Won | |
| 2018 | 5 | Moneyline-Pick | PHI | Lost |
Bets to Make for Week #5
Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:
| BetType | Team | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline-Lock | ARI | |
| Moneyline-Lock | NO | |
| Moneyline-Pick | BUF | |
| Moneyline-Pick | CAR | |
| Moneyline-Pick | GB | |
| Moneyline-Pick | NYJ | |
| Moneyline-Pick | PHI | |
| Spread-Lock | ARI | 4 |
| Spread-Lock | GB | -1 |
| Spread-Lock | IND | 10 |
| Spread-Lock | MIA | 6 |
| Spread-Pick | BUF | 3 |
| Spread-Pick | DAL | 3 |
| Spread-Pick | NO | -6 |
| Spread-Pick | OAK | 5 |
Good luck!
Start of 2018-2019 Season!
Welcome back! It is now the start of the season for my NFL spread model. Since I use a 4 week rolling average of each team’s stats, I don’t boot this bad boy up until week 5. I could have used last seasons stats, but I believe teams change too much in the offseason for those to be relevant.
With that said, there are a few updates this year:
- Game changing indicators
- The model now looks at which team is at home, if the two teams are in the same division, and if the team is a “crowd favorite”
- Normalized inputs are better than normal numbers
- The model is now a logarithmic model instead of linear model, since this will normalize the data for each individual input
- If one equation is good, 5 equations is 5x gooder!
- The model was just one equation. Input numbers into a big formula, it spits out a single ‘predicted score’
- New model had 5 equations and combines the outputs to make the pick
Will any of this help? Who knows? But I am excited to find out. Stay tuned!