This week, my results:

	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline-Pick	7	6	85.71%
Spread-Lock	3	2	66.67%
Spread-Pick	9	5	55.56%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team	Note	Result
2017	8	Spread-Lock	ATL	-4.5	Won
2017	8	Spread-Lock	OAK	3	Lost
2017	8	Spread-Lock	PIT	-3	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	BAL	-3	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	CHI	9	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	DEN	7.5	Lost
2017	8	Spread-Pick	HOU	5.5	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	IND	10.5	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	MIN	-9.5	Won
2017	8	Spread-Pick	SF	13	Lost
2017	8	Spread-Pick	TB	-2	Lost
2017	8	Spread-Pick	WAS	2	Lost
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	ATL		Won
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	CIN		Won
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	KC		Won
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	NO		Won
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	OAK		Lost
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	PIT		Won
2017	8	Moneyline-Pick	SEA		Won

For the whole year so far:

Bet Type	Bets	Wins	Win Percentage
Moneyline-Pick	7	6	85.71%
Spread-Lock	23	12	52.17%
Spread-Pick	39	17	43.59%

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Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team	Note
Spread-Lock	ATL	-4.5
Spread-Lock	OAK	3
Spread-Lock	PIT	-3
Spread-Pick	BAL	-3
Spread-Pick	CHI	9
Spread-Pick	DEN	7.5
Spread-Pick	HOU	5.5
Spread-Pick	IND	10.5
Spread-Pick	MIN	-9.5
Spread-Pick	SF	13
Spread-Pick	TB	-2
Spread-Pick	WAS	2
Moneyline-Pick	ATL
Moneyline-Pick	CIN
Moneyline-Pick	KC
Moneyline-Pick	NO
Moneyline-Pick	OAK
Moneyline-Pick	PIT
Moneyline-Pick	SEA

Good luck!

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Confident bets win percentage this week:
66.67%

All bets win percentage this week:
25.0%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	7	Confident	ATL	-4.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	Confident	OAK	3.0	Covered
2017	7	Confident	PIT	-3.0	Covered
2017	7	LessConfident	BAL	-3.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	CHI	9.0	Covered
2017	7	LessConfident	DEN	7.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	HOU	5.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	IND	10.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	MIN	-9.5	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	SF	13.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	TB	-2.0	Did Not Cover
2017	7	LessConfident	WAS	2.0	Did Not Cover

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
56.52%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
50.0%

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Can I predict the results of NFL Games?

The short answer is no.

The long answer is that I can try, or at least make my computer try!  Using small data, linear regression, and a ton of stats (I think it is ~40 relevant stats per team), I can start to predict the margin of NFL games.  For fun and educational purposes only, I compare my picks against the spread set in Vegas to see if my picks were any good. Maybe these picks could come in handy if/when sports gambling is legal.

New picks every Wednesday, last week’s final results on Wednesday, and a few Weekend Updates after games finalize.

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Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	BAL	5.5
Confident	CHI	3.0
Confident	SF	6.0
Confident	TEN	-5.5
Confident	WAS	4.5
LessConfident	ARI	3.5
LessConfident	ATL	3.0
LessConfident	DEN	1.5
LessConfident	GB	6.0
LessConfident	JAC	-3.5
LessConfident	MIA	-3.0
LessConfident	NYG	5.5
LessConfident	OAK	3.0
LessConfident	PIT	-5.5

Good luck!

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Confident bets win percentage this week:
25.0%

All bets win percentage this week:
41.67%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	6	Confident	DET	4.5	0
2017	6	Confident	GB	-3.0	0
2017	6	Confident	NYG	12.0	1
2017	6	Confident	JAC	-2.5	0
2017	6	LessConfident	CHI	6.5	1
2017	6	LessConfident	CLE	10.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	KC	-5.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	MIA	11.5	1
2017	6	LessConfident	NYJ	10.0	1
2017	6	LessConfident	PHI	3.0	1
2017	6	LessConfident	WAS	-10.0	0
2017	6	LessConfident	TB	-2.0	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
55.0%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
55.0%

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Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	DET	4.5
Confident	GB	-3.0
Confident	JAC	-2.5
Confident	NYG	12.0
LessConfident	CHI	6.5
LessConfident	CLE	10.0
LessConfident	KC	-5.0
LessConfident	MIA	11.5
LessConfident	NYJ	10.0
LessConfident	PHI	3.0
LessConfident	TB	-2.0
LessConfident	WAS	-10.0

Good luck!

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Confident bets win percentage this week:
63.636%

All bets win percentage this week:
61.905%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	5	Confident	BUF	3.0	0
2017	5	Confident	CAR	3.0	1
2017	5	Confident	DAL	-2.0	0
2017	5	Confident	LAC	3.5	1
2017	5	Confident	OAK	-2.5	0
2017	5	Confident	SEA	1.0	1
2017	5	Confident	SF	1.5	0
2017	5	Confident	TB	6.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	ARI	6.5	0
2017	5	LessConfident	NYJ	0.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	PIT	-8.5	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
62.5%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
62.5%

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Confident bets win percentage this week:
50.0%

All bets win percentage this week:
45.4545454545%

My bets from last week:

Year	Week	BetType	Team1	Spread	Covered
2017	5	Confident	BUF	3.0	0
2017	5	Confident	CAR	3.0	1
2017	5	Confident	DAL	-2.0	0
2017	5	Confident	LAC	3.5	1
2017	5	Confident	OAK	-2.5	0
2017	5	Confident	SEA	1.0	1
2017	5	Confident	SF	1.5	0
2017	5	Confident	TB	6.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	ARI	6.5	0
2017	5	LessConfident	NYJ	0.0	1
2017	5	LessConfident	PIT	-8.5	0

For the year, my confident bet win percentage is:
53.8461538462%

For the year, my overall win percentage is:
53.8461538462%

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Based on math and stuff, these are the bets I have for the week:

BetType	Team1	Spread
Confident	BUF	3.0
Confident	CAR	3.0
Confident	DAL	-2.0
Confident	LAC	3.5
Confident	SEA	1.0
Confident	SF	1.5
Confident	TB	6.0
LessConfident	ARI	6.5
LessConfident	NYJ	0.0
LessConfident	PIT	-8.5

Good luck!

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